Innovation is Key Because ‘Wise Warriors Don’t Fight’

March 5, 2024

By Mike Dodd, USMC (Ret.)

'Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.' A simple, yet profound phrase, attributed to the renowned theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author, Stephen Hawking.

The recent decision by the Army to cancel the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft or FARA program, is indeed an intelligent move.

Yes, more than $2BN has been spent on the attack reconnaissance aircraft initiative, however, FARA started (way back) in 2018. That was before the war in Ukraine, which has become a hotbed for drones--This conflict has demonstrated the battlefield advantages of drones, which have become smaller, more lethal, easier to operate, and available to almost anyone. It was also before October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched brutal attacks on Israel and sparked a regional conflict where at least 29 ships traversing the Red Sea have been attacked with drones—13 suffering direct hits. And, of course, there’s the tragic loss of three U.S. soldiers, killed in a kamikaze drone attack in Jordan that injured 47 others.

Pivoting from huge, years-long, multi-billion-dollar acquisitions is not only intelligent, but also critical to our ability to achieve overmatch with our adversaries, especially China. While I can’t predict which other big contracts, like FARA, will be cancelled, I can say we must shift our thinking to a much faster, more nimble approach.

“China is playing for keeps,” explained Senator Mike Braun (R-IN), during a recent visit. “This is going to be another Pearl Harbor, though this time, China will (attack) electronically.” It’s an ominous prediction, though we’re easily thrown for a loop—take, for instance, the recent cell phone outage affecting tens of thousands of users. While attributed to human error, it doesn’t take much imagination to understand the potentially enormous consequences of a malicious attack on our communications and other infrastructure.

In many ways, we are currently at war. It’s being fought in the ‘grey zone’, which, while not necessarily a kinetic event, is a dangerous multi-domain conflict involving cyber, infrastructure and supply chain disruption and use of proxies (non-state, but state-backed actors), among other tactics. To a large extent, these are more punishing ways to attack your adversary. Additionally, moving from the grey zone to actual, physical combat doesn’t take much.

If our defense ecosystem is going to avoid combat (or win if forced to fight), we must continue going down the path of innovation and rapid, low barrier acquisition.

I’ll let the technology experts opine on whether Moore’s Law is dead. I will say, though, that the idea Gordon Moore came up with more than five decades ago--that microchips would double capacity while shrinking in size every two years--is too long for the needed DoD mindset. Instead, innovation needs to be on the fast track of months, weeks and days instead of decades and years. The key to doing this is embracing and innovating current technology that can be leveraged for defense, not reinventing the wheel.

“It’s all about using existing tech… …so that we don’t just make these incredibly complicated bespoke, nobody-else-wants-them (products and systems),” explained Doug Beck, director of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), during a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee. “We leverage… …technology that’s out there so we can go faster, cheaper with better yields.”

Case in point, DIU’s recent announcement to work with commercial partners to develop an autonomous submersible prototype with plans to field hundreds of thousands of such drones to deter China. Program manager, Navy Capt. Grady Hill explained, “We are accelerating our development plans by utilizing rapid contracting authorities to speed capability to the Fleet."

This approach can be easily summed up: faster, cheaper, many. The plan is outlined in DIU 3.0, Scaling Defense Innovation for Strategic Impact.  It’s all about procuring and fielding attritable autonomous systems at scale, aka, lots of inexpensive drones that can be easily and quickly deployed individually or in swarms. “Easier said than done, you bet. But we’re going to do it,” said Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks announcing the launch of the Replicator initiative last August.

Some of the Replicator innovation process, which DIU is spearheading, is happening in the open but much of it—as you might expect—is happening behind closed doors, and that’s by design. As DIU’s Navy portfolio director, Capt. Alex Campbell put it, “There is a very important, frankly critical, conceal and reveal strategy when it comes to Replicator. We do not want our adversaries understanding the detail of the systems that we intend to deploy thousands of to the INDOPACOM” area.

Our traditional battlespace of air, sea and land is now, from the “ocean floor to the stratosphere.” We need to be prepared to fight in each of these realms and for our systems to integrate across them.

As Adm. Sam Paparo, U.S. Pacific Fleet commander recently put it, “We are in the middle of another epochal change and that is the dawn–and I do mean the dawn–of the information revolution. Who competes best in this, who adapts better, who is better able to combine data, computing power, AI and who can win the first battle—in space, cyber, and the information domain—shall prevail.”

Trust me, I’m not advocating for the stop of some big, expensive programs. We need hypersonic weapons. We will still always need plenty of hardware—our Marines will need trucks and tanks and Navy aircraft carriers to ferry them from one place to another. But we need to have a broader, more sophisticated approach that incorporates the mantra: small, smart, cheap and many.  

Let’s take a page from the Chinese. The wise ancient general and military strategist Sun Tzu insisted, "The wise warrior avoids the battle.” If we shift our mindset and keep pushing forward with rapid innovation and acquisition, we will live those words.